Hurricane Beryl’s explosive and record-breaking debut for the 2024 hurricane season has raised significant concerns among weather experts about what lies ahead.
“It’s a hugely ominous start to the season,” stated Steve Bowen, Chief Science Officer at Gallagher Re, a reinsurance firm, on X (formerly Twitter). “If there were doubts about the hyperactive seasonal forecasts, this should serve as a wake-up call.”
“Brace yourselves. The coming months could be very challenging,” he added. “This is a major warning sign for the rest of the season.”
Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, told USA TODAY that while early storms don’t always predict the rest of the season, Beryl’s unprecedented activity suggests otherwise this year.
“Typically, early season activity doesn’t significantly impact the overall season’s activity. However, when it happens in the tropics and east of around 75 degrees W, it often indicates a very busy season,” Klotzbach explained.
“Beryl is breaking records set in 1933 and 2005 – two of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons on record,” he added.
Jeff Berardelli, a meteorologist at WFLA-TV in Tampa, noted that Beryl is now the strongest hurricane recorded this early in the season.
“It’s revealing what the 2024 hurricane season might bring,” he said. “Prepare now, just in case,” he warned on X.
A Slow Start That Quickly Changed
The 2024 hurricane season appeared to start slowly in early June, but this quickly changed, dispelling any notions that preseason predictions of an above-average season were premature.
On Monday, Beryl – a major hurricane with sustained winds of 150 mph and higher gusts – struck the southern end of the Windward Islands, causing potentially catastrophic damage to the Grenadine Islands and Grenada. Its rapid intensification over the weekend shattered previous records.
“Beryl has set numerous records,” said Sam Lillo, a meteorologist and software engineer at DTN Weather, to USA TODAY on Sunday. Beryl, the first hurricane to reach major status before July 1, also surprised forecasters with its early arrival far south in the Atlantic.
On Sunday evening, a system that had been brewing in the northwestern Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico became Tropical Storm Chris, approaching the Mexican coast. This put the season weeks ahead of the typical timeline, as usually, three named storms don’t form until August 3.
Additionally, a third system is moving westward, east of Beryl, and is expected to become a tropical storm later this week, according to the hurricane center.
How Unusual is Beryl?
Beryl surprised forecasters with its location, timing, and remarkable burst of activity, transforming from a tropical depression with 35-mph winds to a major hurricane with 115-mph winds in less than 42 hours.
Only six other Atlantic storms have shown similar rapid intensification from a tropical depression to a major hurricane, all occurring after September 1.
“We are witnessing September-like storms in June,” Lillo said.
Searching the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) historical hurricane tracker for Category 4 and 5 hurricanes before July 1 yields no results, making Beryl the first by over a week. Previously, Hurricane Dennis held the record, reaching Category 4 status on July 8, 2005. At one point, Hurricane Audrey in 1957 was listed as a Category 4 on June 27, but NOAA reanalysis downgraded Audrey to Category 3.
Beryl’s Rapid Intensification
Beryl’s dramatic intensification from a tropical depression to 130 mph winds in 48 hours is extraordinary for any time of year. “To develop and intensify to a Category 4 at that latitude is exceptional. Having this occur far east of the islands is amazing,” Lillo said.
In the hurricane center’s extensive database, only three other storms have strengthened from a tropical depression to Category 4 in less than 48 hours: Keith in September 2000, Wilma in October 2005, and Delta in 2020.
Hurricane Wilma’s winds increased from 70 mph to 175 mph in 24 hours from October 18 to October 19, holding the record for the most intense Atlantic hurricane based on its minimum pressure of 916 millibars.
Although the hurricane center does not expect Beryl to reach Category 5 strength, achieving this would also set an early-season record. The earliest known Category 5 hurricane was Emily on July 17, 2005.
Typically, stronger hurricanes early in the season occur in the northwestern Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico, while storms originating from African coast monsoons are more common later in the season.
Factors Behind Beryl’s Rapid Intensification
Several key factors contributed to Beryl’s rapid intensification, according to Lillo:
- Unusually Warm Ocean Waters: Warm sea surface temperatures provided ample energy for Beryl’s development.
- Compact Size: Smaller storms can change intensities more rapidly.
- Weaker Winds: Weaker wind shear over the Atlantic allowed the hurricane to develop its high cloud tops, which are essential for the heat engine that powers a hurricane.
Understanding and preparing for such rapid intensification events is crucial for minimizing the impact of future hurricanes.
Conclusion
Hurricane Beryl’s record-breaking intensity and early-season arrival signal potential challenges for the rest of the 2024 hurricane season. By staying informed and taking proactive measures, individuals and communities can better prepare for what might lie ahead.